{ "culture": "en-US", "name": "HUC_Population_Projections", "guid": "5600252B-0EAE-4A4C-8030-B153F3D62DD3", "catalogPath": "", "snippet": "HUC population projections are developed by re-aggregating water user group projections adopted for use in the 2026 Regional Water Plans (RWP) and 2027 State Water Plan (SWP) using 2020 Decennial Census block density. The projections by watershed are developed once every five years following the Board-adoption of population projections for the development of the RWPs and SWP. Population projections may be revised prior to the adoption of the 2027 SWP, in which case, the HUC population projections will be revised.", "description": "

This map shows population projections by Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC). Projections are developed by re-aggregating water user group projections adopted for use in the 2026 Regional Water Plans (RWP) and 2027 State Water Plan (SWP) using 2020 Decennial Census block density. The projections by watershed will be conducted once every five years following the Board-adoption of population projections for the development of the RWPs and SWP. Population projections may be revised prior to the adoption of the 2027 SWP, in which case, the HUC population projections will be revised.<\/SPAN><\/P><\/DIV><\/DIV><\/DIV>", "summary": "HUC population projections are developed by re-aggregating water user group projections adopted for use in the 2026 Regional Water Plans (RWP) and 2027 State Water Plan (SWP) using 2020 Decennial Census block density. The projections by watershed are developed once every five years following the Board-adoption of population projections for the development of the RWPs and SWP. Population projections may be revised prior to the adoption of the 2027 SWP, in which case, the HUC population projections will be revised.", "title": "HUC Population Projections", "tags": [ "flood planning", "population", "projections", "HUC", "Hydrologic Unit Code" ], "type": "Map Service", "typeKeywords": [ "ArcGIS", "ArcGIS Server", "Data", "Map Service", "Service" ], "thumbnail": "thumbnail/thumbnail.png", "url": "", "extent": [ [ -106.977251789563, 25.7052385971675 ], [ -93.1213690564606, 36.5342713543141 ] ], "minScale": 0, "maxScale": 1.7976931348623157E308, "spatialReference": "NAD_1983_Texas_Centric_Mapping_System_Albers", "accessInformation": "The Projections and Socioeconomic Analysis Department of the Water Supply Planning Division", "licenseInfo": "

The methodology to develop the HUC projections is limited by:<\/SPAN><\/P>

  • the accuracy of available WUG boundaries,<\/SPAN><\/P><\/LI>

  • the accuracy of the population counts from the 2020 Decennial Census,<\/SPAN><\/P><\/LI>

  • the estimation of population projections used for the 2027 SWP and the nature of uncertainty in population projections over time,<\/SPAN><\/P><\/LI>

  • the assumption that the percent of the split WUG's population residing the sub-watershed will not change over time,<\/SPAN><\/P><\/LI>

  • the assumption that the population is evenly distributed within a census block. This method tends to work well for denser urban populations with smaller block sizes. However, the population distribution in rural areas, where the census block size is much larger, may not be as uniform in composition.<\/SPAN><\/P><\/LI><\/UL>

    Due to methodology assumptions, it is recommended to limit the projections to 2060. Any future buildout of areas with low density in 2020 will not be captured in this methodology and thus may under-project the population of the geographic area while potentially over-projections the density of another area over time. Re-aggregating the projections beyond 2060 may increase the margin of error. Also, note that this uniform methodology is to re-aggregate the existing utility-WUG level population projections developed for the 2027 SWP, and is not specifically considering any demographic characteristics of the sub-watershed areas. <\/SPAN><\/P>

    These initial re-aggregated populations are the Board-adopted projections as of 11/9/2023. Population projections may be revised prior to the adoption of the 2027 State Water Plan.<\/SPAN><\/P><\/DIV>" }